Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”